With the anticipation of a bustling Thanksgiving week, the movie industry is abuzz with news of two highly awaited films hitting theaters around November 22. Universal Studios’ “Wicked” and Paramount Pictures’ “Gladiator II” are both projecting impressive opening weekends, setting the stage for a notable cinematic showdown. As we explore these films’ potential impacts and implications for box office dynamics, it’s crucial to examine how they cater to their respective audiences and their broader significance in the film landscape.
Forecasts suggest that “Wicked” may open above $80 million, which would mark a significant achievement for director Jon M. Chu, eclipsing his previous record holder, “G.I. Joe Retaliation,” which made $41 million in its opening weekend back in 2013. “Wicked,” based on the beloved Broadway show, has garnered enormous interest, particularly among female audiences—a demographic that typically plans their movie outings in advance. Comparatively, “Gladiator II” seems poised for a robust debut at around $65 million, a potential record for star Denzel Washington under director Ridley Scott. Washington’s previous opening record was with “American Gangster,” which grossed $44 million.
The excitement surrounding these films is not merely about the opening numbers; they both have the potential for substantial upside as word-of-mouth spreads and critical reviews come in. One particularly noteworthy aspect is the unique appeal both films hold for gendered audiences, with “Wicked” showing a stronger connection with women, while “Gladiator II” resonates well with both men and older women.
Both films are showing impressive figures in terms of audience awareness and interest. Tracking indicates that they share an unaided awareness level of approximately 19. This measure assesses how many potential viewers can name the films without prompts, highlighting a significant level of excitement among the masses. Total awareness for both films remains high, sitting in the low 80s, although “Gladiator II” does display a broader appeal as it leads in total interest.
Interestingly, presales for “Wicked” have indicated a remarkable volume, surpassing those of “Gladiator II.” This phenomenon aligns with the behavioral trend that female audiences tend to plan their cinema visits more rigorously, often coordinating group outings well in advance. In contrast, presales for “Wicked” reportedly double those of its competitor, “Beetlejuice,” and even trail behind massive blockbusters like “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour,” which demonstrates the competitive marketplace at play.
If “Wicked” succeeds with an opening above $80 million, it will establish a new record for the highest opening weekend for a film adapted from a Broadway musical. Currently, that record is held by “Bohemian Rhapsody” at $51 million. Similarly, if “Gladiator II,” outpaces the opening of the original “Gladiator,” which debuted to $34.8 million in 2000, it would further cement the film as a fresh standout in this sequel-heavy landscape.
It’s also essential to consider the broader context of the film calendar; with Black Friday representing one of the most lucrative days for moviegoing, these films are hitting theaters at a prime moment. The increased foot traffic could amplify ticket sales for both titles significantly, regardless of their competitive nature.
Early indications from screenings of both “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” are overwhelmingly positive, with excitement bubbling among fans and critics alike. Broadway star Kristin Chenoweth, who played Glinda in the original musical, has fervently endorsed “Wicked,” promising audiences a breathtaking experience. This enthusiasm is expected to play a critical role in driving ticket sales as word-of-mouth becomes a persistent factor in the following weeks after the releases.
Moreover, it’s noteworthy that Universal has strategically divided “Wicked” into two films, with Part 2 set for release in Thanksgiving 2025. This gamble reflects a broader trend in Hollywood towards franchise-building and storytelling that extends beyond a single film. As for “Gladiator II,” its overseas box office rollout begins earlier, showcasing a competitive edge that could capture international audiences before facing domestic rivals.
As Thanksgiving approaches, “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” are set to not only enthrall audiences but also redefine box office expectations. With both films targeting different audience segments, the potential for record-breaking openings looms larger than ever. They epitomize the diverse storytelling ambitions within the industry and highlight transitional shifts in demographics and viewing habits. With anticipation building, the holiday cinematic landscape promises to be vibrant and compelling, making it a pivotal moment for studios looking to maximize audience engagement.